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That still brings a potential market cap of $978 million, or 96% over today’s price. But just to be conservative, let’s assume the market will not do this, but use a higher 2.5% FCF yield.

In other words, theoretically TSM stock could be worth 2.5x the price today if we use the same 1.75% FCF yield metric. That represents a potential gain of 150% in the stock price. Therefore, if we divide our $22.46 billion FCF estimate by the 1.75 FCF yield metric, the target market value is $1,386 billion (i.e., $1.386 trillion). Right now the stock is valued at about a 1.75% FCF yield (i.e., $9.77 billion in FCF / $555 billion market capitalization). That implies a huge gain in the stock price is coming. Therefore, using analysts’ 2022 revenue forecast of $72.68 billion in revenue in 2022, its FCF will be $22.46 billion this year. This is slightly less than the 32.55% Q4 margin, but we can assume that it will last throughout 2022. This means that we can assume that the Q1 FCF margin will be 71.8% of its new guidance of 42% to 44% for Q1. For example, its Q4 FCF margin was 32.55%, and the op margin was 41.7% - i.e., the FCF/Op Margin ratio is 78.1%.

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So, do you see the pattern here? We can estimate its Q1 free cash flow by assuming that the relationship between operational margin and FCF margin in Q4 holds up. Last quarter it beat its own guidance of a 39% to 41% operating margin guidance, achieving a 41.7% operation margin. More importantly, it reports that its guidance is for an operating margin of 42% to 44%. In fact, the company provides guidance of 5.3% to 9.3% increase in revenue for Q1 on its investor relations website. That likely reflects the premium pricing it is now able to charge and bodes extremely well for 2022.

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This was almost twice the rate for the full year. That is pretty good, but the lead is buried in the details.įrom what I can tell (using the NTD data), the chip maker produced a 32.55% FCF margin in the fourth quarter. This represents a very respectable 17.2% of its $56.8 billion in revenue last year. (You can probably tell I don’t like to rely on company statements). This is from my calculations per the information on page 4 of its financial statement - not anything in their earnings release. TSMC produced $9.771 billion in free cash flow (FCF) last year, based on its own dollar/New Taiwan Dollar (NTD) exchange rates.

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The top five is closed out by Cloud9, which operates entries in the League of Legends Championship Series (LCS), Overwatch League (OWL) and Fortnite, was pegged at US$380 million.What to Expect at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Faze Clan’s revenue figure, confirmed in its US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing, is the only confirmed number in the study. Although Axiomatic Gaming, the company which owns the esports outfit, recently raised US$35 million in a funding round that valued Team Liquid at US$415 million, Forbes estimates that price tag has since increased.įaze Clan is ranked fourth and valued at US$400 million, having generated the second highest revenue of any organisation in the top ten at US$52.9 million. Third-ranked by Forbes is Netherlands-based Team Liquid, reaching a valuation of US$440 million, up 42 per cent YoY. The organisation will seek to grow further with the launch of a 100 Thieves lifestyle brand also covering apparel and entertainment.

In December, a funding round saw 100 Thieves raise US$60 million and provided the listed valuation. The organisation saw the largest YoY increase in value at 142 per cent and brought in US$38 million of revenue last year. Team SoloMid tops esports property rankings with US$410m valuationġ00 Thieves placed second on Forbes’ 2022 list, with a valuation of US$460 million.